On the early morning of April 8th local time, the Supreme National Security Council of Iran issued a statement, following the advice of the Supreme Leader and with the approval of the council, it decided to accept the ceasefire proposal put forward by Pakistan. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi simultaneously announced that the Strait of Hormuz would achieve safe navigation within the next two weeks. The US side also sent out signals of compromise. President Trump of the US stated through social media that he had received the relevant suggestions proposed by Iran and agreed to suspend the bombing attacks against Iran for two weeks. These series of statements quickly changed the tense situation in the Middle East geopolitics and brought relief to the global energy market that had been shaken for several days. French President Macron said on the same day that about 15 countries were coordinating to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to facilitate the resumption of navigation. 

For over a month prior to this, the military conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran continued to escalate, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz nearly came to a halt. This strait carries approximately one quarter of the global maritime oil trade. The obstruction of navigation led to a loss of about 10 million barrels of daily crude oil production worldwide, causing international oil prices to rise and impacting the global industrial chain. On April 7th, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the international crude oil price broke through the 110 US dollar per barrel mark, and the PTA futures price also rose simultaneously, approaching 7,000 points. The domestic PTA market presented a "strong up and weak down" pattern. The high upstream costs and the shrinking downstream demand formed a tug-of-war, high costs brought significant pressure to downstream industries such as textiles that rely on crude oil derivatives, the开工 rate of polyester enterprises declined， and the demand for terminal weaving was weak， resulting in overall industry pressure. 

Although the long-term trend of the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, in the short term, the significant drop in crude oil prices has provided a rare window of opportunity for textile enterprises facing raw material shortages to replenish their inventories. Previously, driven by the continuous rise in crude oil prices, the prices of textile raw materials such as polyester fibers rose. Many small and medium-sized textile enterprises were in a production predicament due to the shortage of raw material inventory. Even if they had orders in hand, they could not start production due to the excessively high raw material costs and had to wait passively. This time, the cooling of oil prices brought about by the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, combined with the decline in the price of PTA futures, provided a replenishment opportunity for textile enterprises. In line with the inventory management principles of the textile industry, this is an appropriate time for moderate replenishment. It can not only alleviate the short-term shortage of raw materials but also lower the procurement costs by taking advantage of the price decline, providing a guarantee for subsequent production. 

It should be noted that the replenishment decisions of textile enterprises still need to be made rationally. The current ceasefire lasts for two weeks. If the negotiations break down, oil prices may rebound again. The PTA market still has a pressure of overstocking, and the recovery of downstream polyester demand is slow. Small and medium-sized enterprises can take advantage of this price decline to moderately replenish the raw materials needed for short-term production, balance costs and inventory risks, and avoid excessive stockpiling. Textile enterprises should not only seize the current replenishment window, reasonably optimize the inventory structure, but also do a good job in risk prevention, and closely monitor the dynamic changes in geopolitics and energy prices. 

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