Since 2025, the global textile industry chain has been continuously evolving under the multiple influences of exchange rate fluctuations, supply-demand adjustments and regional trade differentiation. The cotton textile industry has shown a dual pattern of "cotton end recovering from the bottom and clothing end breaking through the trend". On one hand, China's cotton imports have gradually rebounded after reaching the bottom in terms of both quantity and price, with highly concentrated supply sources; on the other hand, China's clothing has逆势 increased its market share in the EU， leading the world with its supply chain resilience， while some traditional low-cost supply countries are facing development bottlenecks. The interlinked changes in these two sectors， combined with factors such as exchange rates and technology， are reshaping the industry's development logic and setting the tone for 2026. 

The import of cotton has picked up, and the sources of supply are highly concentrated.

As a core raw material in the industry, the import pattern of cotton directly affects the rhythm of the industrial chain. In 2025, China's cotton import volume dropped to 1.07 million tons, a decrease of 59% compared to 2024. This was constrained by factors such as production, quotas, and external conditions. However, from the monthly trend, it shows a bottoming-out and rebounding pattern. In January 2026, the import volume reached a peak, and then it declined due to factors such as tight quotas, but it continued to rise in the second half of the year as the peak season arrived, sending out a signal of recovery. 

The sources of imports show a "dominated by four powers" pattern. Brazil accounts for 43.45% and ranks first as the source country; Australia accounts for 30.72%, benefiting from stable trade and demand for quality; the share of the United States has shrunk to 10.76%; the combined share of other countries is only 13.92%. The high concentration of sources ensures stability, but it also conceals geopolitical and logistics risks. 

The resilience of clothing exports is evident, and the market in the EU shows significant differentiation.

In the downstream clothing sector, the recovery and differentiation of the EU market have become the focus. In November 2025, the EU's clothing import volume increased by 17.4% year-on-year, ending the previous slump. However, exchange rate fluctuations led to a significant decrease in the unit prices denominated in euros and US dollars, presenting a "volume increase but price weakness" characteristic. 

In this context, China's clothing exports have demonstrated strong competitiveness. From January to November 2025, the volume of clothing imported by the EU from China increased by 15.6% year-on-year, higher than the global average; in November alone, the growth rate reached 16.9%, matching the overall market. This is attributed to the advantages of China's supply chain in terms of response speed, production capacity stability, and product added value. Enterprises have effectively addressed cost and exchange rate pressures through technological upgrades, process optimization, and digital transformation. 

In contrast, traditional supplier Bangladesh is facing challenges. In November 2025, the EU's imports of clothing from it only increased by 1.6%, and the euro-denominated import value decreased by 10.9%, highlighting its shortcomings in the overly dependent model of low-price competition. It has a gap in terms of risk resistance and bargaining power compared to China. 

The industry is entering a critical adjustment period.

The two-way changes in the cotton textile industry indicate that the entire supply chain is entering a deep adjustment phase. In 2026, the trend of increased cotton imports is expected to continue, but enterprises need to be vigilant about the risk of concentrated sources. They should adopt diversified procurement, inventory optimization, and futures tools to manage risks. In the clothing sector, Chinese enterprises can consolidate their market share through resilience, while countries relying on low-price competition need to accelerate their transformation. 

Furthermore, exchange rate fluctuations remain a significant variable, and enterprises need to utilize tools such as foreign exchange hedging to cope with it. At the same time, digitalization and green transformation have become the key to breaking through. Through intelligent upgrades and green product development, the industry can be driven towards value upgrading. 

Overall, the cotton textile industry is in a stage of bottom-feeding recovery and structural optimization from 2025 to 2026. The recovery of cotton prices and the resilience of the clothing industry provide support for high-quality development. With the promotion of innovation and the improvement of the supply chain, Chinese cotton textile enterprises are expected to seize the initiative in the global industrial chain reconfiguration and achieve more sustainable development. 

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