On July 15th, the Information Office of The State Council held a press conference. Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2025 and answered questions from journalists. In response to the highly concerned issue of China's economic trend in the second half of the year, Deputy Director Sheng Laiyun made an important response, sending out many positive signals.

There is support for stable economic growth in the second half of the year

Sheng Laiyun said that judging from the situation in the second half of the year, although there are still many uncertainties in the external environment and the pressure of internal structural adjustment is relatively large, a comprehensive judgment shows that there is support for China's economy to maintain stable growth in the second half of the year.

The stable and progressive development trend and achievements of the economy in the first half of the year have laid a good foundation for achieving the annual goals. In the first half of the year, China's economy withstood pressure and grew steadily, maintaining a development trend of steady progress and improvement. This fully demonstrated China's economic resilience and strong resilience. Such a development trend will be maintained. The GDP growth rate in the first half of the year has reached 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the expected target.

Over the years, the general trend and practice of high-quality development have built consensus, accumulated new impetus, advanced economic rebalancing, and enhanced the capacity for sustainable economic development. From the perspective of production, after years of transformation, the service industry's contribution rate to economic growth is on the rise. Among the three industries, the added value of the service sector accounted for 59.1% of the GDP in the first half of the year, and its contribution rate to GDP growth exceeded 60%. Judging from the leading indicators in recent months, the service industry prosperity index has remained in the expansion range above 50%, indicating that the service industry is developing well and the industries that account for a relatively large proportion of economic growth will maintain a good development momentum.

From the perspective of demand, consumption is the "ballast stone" and main driving force of economic growth. The consumer market became more active in the first half of the year. Driven by consumption policies, it will continue to develop well in the second half of the year, and its role as a "ballast stone" for economic growth will continue to be evident. In terms of exports, China has implemented diversified opening up to the outside world and built a diversified trade pattern. The degree of trade dependence on a single country has dropped to single digits. China's imports and exports rose by 2.9% in the first half of the year. This was achieved despite the huge external shock in the second quarter, demonstrating the resilience of trade. From the perspective of new growth drivers, new growth drivers continue to grow, and new industries, new business forms and new models maintain a relatively fast growth rate.

The coordinated efforts of macro policies will ensure the stable operation of the economy. This year, China has implemented more proactive and effective macro policies, which have played a stabilizing role. In accordance with the requirements of the central government, relevant departments have recently accelerated the introduction of policies for the second half of the year, which will continue to play a key supporting role in the stable operation of the economy. Meanwhile, relevant authorities also stated that China has a rich policy "toolbox" and is strengthening its policy reserves, which will be introduced in a timely manner in accordance with market changes.

Based on the above supporting factors, it is judged that China's economy will continue to maintain a stable and progressive, stable and positive development trend in the second half of the year. This is also the reason why many international institutions and investment banks hold optimistic expectations for China's economy.

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