[In July, the economy continued to restore the situation.]
Release date:[3:53:16] Read a total of [42] time

On August 16, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that major economic data, production, consumption, and investment, etc., from July to July, have slowed down, and lower than market expectations. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui said that in July, the increase in external uncertain factors and the influence of domestic mood, epidemic situation, and some main indicators have fallen, but from the accumulation, the main macro indicators are still in a reasonable range. The economy has continued to restore the situation. In the next stage, the economic recovery situation will continue.

The market participating the interview believes that due to the continued evolution of the global epidemic, the domestic epidemic is more distributed and natural disasters, and the economic downtown pressure is expected to achieve more than 6% of economic growth this year. The progress of local debt issuance will accelerate in the second half of the year, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment will gradually pick up, support economic restoration. However, with this year's base, economic growth pressure will be more prominent next year.

Manufacturing investment continues to warm

The data shows that the increase in industrial added value above in July increased by 6.4% year-on-year, and it was 1.9 percentage points from June. The total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3492.5 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, fell off with 3.6 percentage points from June. From January to July, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 10.3% year-on-year, fell back from 2.3 percentage points from January to June.

A number of market people said that the global epidemic continued to evolve, and the domestic epidemic is more distributed and natural disasters. Economic downtown stress is suddenly the most intuitive experience in July. Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said that overall, production and demand expansion in July have slowed down, and increased with expected gap.

However, the data still has highlights. Such as: The national fixed asset investment is accelerated in July. In the past seven months, manufacturing investment increased by 17.3% year-on-year, accelerating 1.1 percentage points from January to June.

Wu Chaoying, chief economist, financial security, said that the reporter of the Securities Times said that the reasons for the continued recovery of manufacturing investment: First, high-tech industrial investment continues to maintain high growth, especially the increase in the investment of "card neck" in the chip, such as high-tech industries The investment increased by 20.7% year-on-year, an average increase of 14.2% in two years; the speed of investment in equipment technology is accelerated; the third is to increase the growth rate of investment in the export-related fields, such as overseas epidemic continues, China's exports will remain better in China. Stimulate the investment of related industries.

Wang Jingwen, the senior macro researcher of Minsheng Bank, since July, the price of commodity prices have come up, and the middle and lower reaches of the double extrusion of the cost increase and the decline in demand have been entered the passive replenishment. It is expected to continue to expand the willingness of investment. Not strong. But the Political Bureau held in July requested "Guiding Enterprises to increase the technical transformation investment", follow-up technical transformation, or will accelerate.

Fu Linghui said that the profit of manufacturing companies will be rapidly increased, and the company expects overall stability, which is conducive to manufacturing investment growth. This year is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", some major projects of the "14th Five-Year Plan will also launch construction.

For the return of the growth rate of the consumer market, Foling Linghui said that it is affected by short-term factors, the market sales have slowed, but the consumption recovery situation is expected to continue. With the continuous expansion of vaccination, the effective implementation of precision prevention and control is effective, and the consumer market is expected to maintain overall stability. It is also necessary to see that employment has expanded, and the income of residents is also conducive to the improvement of consumption, and consumption can maintain a stable recovery situation.

The economy will remain stable and restored in the second half of the year.

The lower stage of the prospects, Fu Linghui said that in the first half, my country's economy will still maintain a stable recovery, main macro indicators will remain in a reasonable range, and the development quality will continue to improve. At the end of July, the Central Political Council has been fully deployed in the second half of the year. The key to the lower stage is to implement the Party Central Committee, the State Council decision-making deployment, promote the economic stability and restoration, and promote high quality development.

Wang Jingwen believes that fiscal policies have reserved the power space for the second half of the year. As of July this year, special debt issuance is only 37%, far below last year. The Politburo Meeting Requires "Reasonably grasping the progress of the budget investment and local government bond issuance, promoting the first year of first-year physical work" Plays the role of the bottom of the bottom. With the cooperation, monetary policy will gradually transition to "stable credit, wide currency" stage. Wu Chaofang also expects that the main driving force for pulling the economy in the second half of the year is manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment. Wen Bin believes that with this year's base, economic growth pressure will be more prominent next year.

Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, said that major projects are expected to speed up in the third quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the three potential constraints, including weather disturbances, mass commodity price increases or persistent presence of compression commodity demand and early stop-working projects. . Li Chao believes that the annual dimension is seen that the growth rate of major project support is stable and is expected to increase the growth rate of investment in the year. In terms of monetary policy, under the double pressure of economic falling and immunity recurrence, the probability of insistence is still reduced and oriented.


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